The way things are going, it sure looks like that will be the name on an office door up in Sacramento…
…at least so far.
In 2010, when Irvine attorney Don Wagner was running in the Republican Primary for the 70th Assembly District, it would be relatively safe to say that compared with Irvine City Councilman Steven Choi and Tustin Mayor Jerry Amante, he was the most unknown, and as the president of the South Orange County Community College District Board of Trustees, probably held the lowest-profile public office of the three. But even with that, in some polls, he trailed only Choi, with Amante polling a distant third.
So Amante did what anyone polling in third place would do, attack the guy, Choi, polling in first place, right? It’s a given.
And how did Choi respond? Instead of ignoring the guy on the outside looking in, instead of attacking the guy nipping at his heels (Wagner) in the polls, he fired back at the guy in distant third place.
And with Amante and Choi going after each other, they left Wagner pretty much unscathed and he became sort of the “Good Guy” in the race. Coupled with a few other things (like hard work), Wagner won the Republican Primary and became the 70th Assembly District’s new Assemblyman.
I remind all you of this because in these earliest days for the newly re-districted 74th Assembly District’s primary, I already see the same thing happening between the “Incumbent” Assemblyman Allan Mansoor and Huntington Beach Attorney Keith Carlson, with Newport Beach Councilmember Leslie Daigle safely nestled out of firing range, apparently…
(Full disclosure alert: I have endorsed Carlson in this race.)
For the 2012 Assembly race, there will be no political party primaries. No, in the Primary election this time, the top two vote getters (regardless of Political Party) go to the General Election. In our 74th Assembly District, that probably means two Republicans will duke it out in November. And the most (more) Moderate Republican will probably win then, by drawing the votes of all the Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents in the district.
So the fear for Mansoor and Carlson, who are both Conservatives, both Republican, and will probably vote exactly the same up in Sacramento, is that they will split the vote in the Primary Election to allow the more Moderate Republican Leslie Daigle to slip right on through into November, at which point, because of the nature of the election and with the 800 Pound City (Irvine) in the mix, she will probably crush either Mansoor or Carlson.
OK. Knowing that, you’d think that Mansoor and Carlson would do anything and everything to make sure that Daigle DOESN’T make it to November right?
Instead … Mansoor and Carlson have both come out of the gates trying to chase each other out of the race, and have started by attacking EACH OTHER.
Makes sense right? We want to make sure that Leslie Daigle doesn’t get enough votes in the Primary, so we’m just going to leave her alone (ala Wagner) and make each other look like a horrible candidate.
So, first Keith Carlson sends out an email blast saying why Allan Mansoor sucks, then, two weeks later, Mansoor attacks back with his retorts and reasons why Carlson sucks.
Wow, if both of those guys suck, then Leslie must be the best choice right? And history repeats itself…
Perhaps instead of going after each other, they should both be firing away often and un-mercifully to paint Daigle as the 74th Assembly District’s worst nightmare, who will help the Democrats destroy California.
But most of all, they should not be attacking each other, because if they continue down this road, we’ll be looking at six years of Assemblywoman Leslie Daigle.
If both Carlson and Mansoor can make it through the Primary Election to the General against each other … then go ahead and attack each other to your hearts’ content … in the meanwhile, figure out who your biggest threat is NOW before it’s too late.
And if I’m Leslie? I’d stay quiet on the sidelines and let these two monkeys continue to throw uh … mud at each other, while I emerge unscathed … smelling